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BOTIVO’s Rate of Sale Increasing Super Power Dumb DIAGEO Wish They Knew 20 Years Ago (silly billys)
Dan Pope
November 01, 2024
Once Upon a Time in a land Far, Far, Far Away
In a Galaxy Further and Further and Further away
A strange land
The inhabitants spoke a funny dialect
Lived off a diet of GREGGS Steak Bakes
In this far away land, I was drowning
Drowning
Drowning
Drowning in a frothing sea of hangover.
Hull.
The night before:: we caroused on the Jaeger Train in Tuesday Yates.
The next morning, as the Irish would say, yer man was 50 fokin’ shades of fokin’ hanging l-ike good craic like - proper GREAT craic like, Donal
My head:: a zoo of woodpeckers screaming and flapping inside.
Hanging out your Glitter Box hangover.
In around 14 minutes, the Knight would come to save me.
The Turquoise and Silver Knight.
Sir Deliveroo the 5th.
Yup, McMuffin Breakie order.
My McMuffin MOQ is 3 with a side of thrice hash browns con BBQ sauce.
#I’mLovinIt
#I’mLovingItTooBloodyMuchSomeWouldSay
Now, chill ya beans, I know what you’re thinking.
What THE FUCKING FUCK has McMuffins got to do with decision making?
Well, lemme introduce you to a total donny.
Ray Dailo.
Ray Dailio wrote a wonderful book called Principles.
In Principles Sting-Ray emphasises the importance of considering second and third-order consequences when making decisions.
Dalio's idea is people who focus too much on the first-order consequences of their decisions often don't reach their goals.
Here's what Ray means by first-order, second-order, and third-order consequences of decision making and me ordering McMuffins.
First-order consequences
The most immediate results or feelings of a decision. For example, eating a McDonalds McMuffin when you’re hanging in Hull and enjoying it is a first-order consequence
Second-order consequences
The longer-term effects of a decision. For example, feeling fucking rank after scoffing three fucking McDonalds McMuffin down your fucking gob is a second-order consequence.
Third-order consequences: the even longer-term effects of a decision. For example, gaining weight or breaking a habit of quitting sugar (aka not being a Fat Fuck) are third-order consequences of eating a McMuffin
Challenger food and drink founders: not thinking about 2nd, 3rd, 4th order consequences of decision making is DANGEROUS.
Example Numero Uno
Decision: Bring on a new employee to drive D2C growth
First-order consequences = great news!! the new hire has taken loads off the marketing teams plate. We’ve FINALLY got a D2C specialist. We may bring in an extra £50k this year.
Seems great, right?
Second-order consequences (3 months later) = hiring this person was initially great. But, more people = more problems. This person appeared a great cultural fit, but, now the team find them annoying. My time is spent fixing these people and cultural problems. The whole reason I hired this person was to get out the weeds and build the company vision.
Third-order consequences (6 months later) = we got distracted by D2C. A new shiny toy. Yes, we’ve got an extra £50k in the business. But we’ve also doubled the headaches/ admin/ meeting time). We should have hired in grocery as that’s where the biggest opportunity is.
Example Numero Dos (literally EVERY FOUNDER falls into this TRAP)
Decision: Launch new piece of NPD to drive growth ££
First-order consequences = unlock more listings. Give TESCO exclusivity. Drive revenue. Unlock a new category. Build cross category-brand awareness.
Seems great, right?
Second-order consequences (3 months later) = yes, you unlock TESCO by dangling a NPD carrot. Suddenly, all your focus goes to making the NPD work. Comms get diluted. You neglect the core range. Lose focus. Hire more people to make the NPD work.
Third-order consequences (6 months later) = you realise NPD was a total money grab. Private Equity firms DON’T want to buy a brand with tonnes of wishy-washy products. They want a clear brand with a clear product proposition.. You realise this was a total waste of time.
A few weeks ago, I ran a Sales Workshop for VITA COCO. On the wall in their office, they’ve got a plaque with 15 NPD products that failed.
Why?
A reminder to focus on the core. By focusing on the core, they tripled their revenue.
A reminder to focus on the 2nd, 3rd, 4th order consequences of decision making.
Founders often only understand the 2nd, 3rd, 4th consequences of decision making, retrospectively. When it’s too late.
A prudent founder superpower is to understand the 2nd, 3rd, 4th order consequences of the decision BEFORE YOU make it.
I am a victim of this too.
Over the Summer, I got too big for my boots, became a Nefarious NeoLiberal Ninkin Poop - “yup, yup… lets start a production company…”
1st order consequence of starting a production company = make £££££ coin producing other podcasts
2nd order consequences of starting a production company = complete distraction from HUNGRY, tonnes of extra headaches co-ordinating people and jumping on Zoom calls to pitch people. Was a fucking nightmare.
3rd order consequences of starting a production company = time spent building other podcasts completely erodes time building HUNGRY i.e. landing great guests, prepping epic conversations.
Now…. BOTIVO Let’s pull this through the Brand Building lens.
Imme, BOTIVO founder, on our recent poddy said something so profound it sent lightning bolts of excitement crawling through my veins.
Imme said, “in brand building think of 2nd, 3rd, 4th brand touch points to build real brand depth”
Similar to Ray Dailo’s 2nd, 3rd, 4th order decision making.
Why are 2nd, 3rd, 4th order brand touch points important?
**More touch points = increase occasion opportunities = increase consumption frequency = increase Rate of Sale
Do this slowwwwwlyyyyy. But surely.
Quick one…. *THE* BANGING CRIMBO DOO OF YOUR DREAMS IS HERE
🧑🎄Where: The Camberwell Arms, Camberwell (my absolute fave)
🌲When: 20th November 5pm till very late
🍺Who: founders and directors of challenger brands ONLY
Includes 3 Course Feast + Crimbo Goodie bag filled with amazing brands
Tickets go live Wednesday 6th November 9am
Feast Seats are first come, first serve
Register here:
Back to my waffle
In 2024, we’re lucky because there’s never been more opportunities and brand touch points (outside of shelf) to tell stories, add texture, depth and levels to our brand.
Social media
Newsletter
Events
Supper Clubs
Founders get obsessed with splattering as many messages on their packaging - it leaves consumers confused.com.
Founders get so obsessed with the first touch point (packaging) they complete forget there’s a 2nd, 3rd, 4th touch point to play with.
Focusing all your energies on the first brand point is DANGEROUS.
Tonnes of brands with tonnes of messaging on pack leave tonnes confused.
Knowing you’ve have 1, 2,3,4,5 touch points to play with is a super power.
Let’s use BOTIVO as a darling example.
1st Touch Point (packaging)= Non-Alcoholic and Fun
2nd Touch Point (events) = Also works with booze, whack it Tequila to take your night up a level.
3rd Touch Point (newsletter to die fans) = ohh btw BOTIVO is also very healthy, we use Apple Cider Vinegar
Imagine BOTIVO trying tell you all that in ONE touch point = Non-Alcoholic and Fun + Also works with booze, whack it Tequila to take your night up a level + ohh btw BOTIVO is also very healthy, we use Apple Cider Vinegar
You’d be like WOOOOOWWWWW CHILL - THA - FUCKKKKK OUT BUDDDY
Remember More touch points = increase occasion opportunities = increase consumption frequency = increase Rate of Sale
So, founders 2nd, 3rd, 4th order consequences in decision making is a super power.
And, 2nd, 3rd, 4th brand touch points is a super power.
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