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Why has Hard Seltzer totally bombed in the UK? Are we doing NPD all wrong? The Map is NOT the Terrain.
Dan Pope
January 05, 2024
Whaghwan peeps
Happy New Year and all that dross. How many cold plunges you done so far? 5K fiends? Nutri Bullet-nause? Satsuma-swag.
New Year, Same Me - currently reading Atomic Habits by James Clear - HIGHLY RECOMMEND OKAY GUYS - I’m looking to pick up the habit of smoking and eating daily chocolate hobnobs (…it’s really helping!!!).
I am in Colombia. In the Soup. All weird and wonderful fruit bowl colours: reds, blues and creams and dreams and oranges and yellows and purples and browns and terracotta technicolour wild-fire.
Pummelling your face with flame-throwaaa phoarrrrrr!!! Food is tepidly revolting and anaemically engulfing.
A coupla days of ago, like a true plastered Brit, plastered in sunburn, I was slurping up a hard seltzer on the beach.
It made me think:
Why has Hard Seltzer totally bombed in the UK? Are we doing NPD all wrong? The Map is NOT the Terrain.
**this is not me taking a dig at Hard Seltzer founders at all. I know some amazing founders building amazing brands, Nick at High Water, Barry at &SODA, the guys at DRTY. All sick brands. A a lightweight, I drink it often.
Lets jump in
There’s a BIG difference between
Consumer-heart innovation vs. Industry-head innovation.
Industry-head innovation = MAP
Consumer-heart innovation = TERRAIN
Industry-head innovation goes something like this:
Founders get swayed by the challenger brand echo chamber: LinkedIn. Retailer Swanky Dinners. Yearly Progress reports. Networking events. Innovate based on industry-head.
Founders get swayed by the whipping industry-head winds: Buyers KPIs. Category Data and agendas. So easily done. Innovate based on industry-head.
Founders get swayed by money-grab distribution opportunities. So, happily, they follow the Map. Innovate based on industry-head.
Dangerous because:
The MAP is NOT the terrain.
The MAP is NOT the terrain.
The MAP is NOT the terrain.
Yup,
You can follow all the Map. The trend reports. Data. Insights. Buyers wants and needs. Retailer strategy.
But, the MAP (industry-head) doesn’t tell you EVERYTHING about the TERRAIN (consumer-heart).
Yes, a map is a great guide. But, it doesn’t show you pot holes or hills or inclines or grubby roads or rocky terrain.
The map doesn’t show the NUANCE.
The MAP is NOT the terrain.
The MAP is NOT the terrain.
The MAP is NOT the terrain.
In Food and Drink:
Following the MAP (industry-head), ironically, blinds us from seeing the TERRAIN (consumers-heart).
Hard Seltzer is an amazing example of the Map is Not the Terrain.
On the MAP, Hard Seltzer looks amazing,
Huge and booming category in the US and Australia
RTD Booze drinks category beginning to grow in UK
Macro factors of healthier booze alternatives soaring
Demand for low calorie drinks soaring, too
Presumably high margins?! Its booze and sparkling water FFS
No brainer?
Surely?
BUT…
In the UK, the TERRAIN is VERY different from the MAP.
the advert bit… trust me ya’ll love this
Introducing our WONDERFUL agency partner HC Consulting
Harry Clarke and Lili Wiranatha are doing EPIC work with EPIC brands -Holy Moly Dips, The Gut Stuff, Savyll Drinks, REMEO Gelato
Struggling to unlock distribution?
Sales pitch not landing?
Don’t want to hire a full time sales director - but need the advice and guidance?
Need a helping handing with account management to keep your beloved listing?
Please do yourself a favour.
Reach out to my boi, Harry Clarke, Harry may be able to help!
Deets here:
Back to the newsletter…
The UK Terrain:
It’s fucking wet, cold and miserable 7 months of the year vs. California where it’s hot all year round
Imagine going to Victoria Park (or Viccy park for hipster-dipsters) and sitting around drinking hard seltzer today in this weather?! Hmmm, thanks. But, no thanks, mate. Consumption oppos are WAY less.
The size of the market in the USA is totally different. If you get just one state, say California, that alone is 3.2x the size of the UK. Imagine you get just two states, the market opportunity could be 6X bigger than the UK.
The USA are used to low-calorie alcohol options. Due to Budlights roaring success over many, many years. Low calorie is a much easier switch for them. For Brits it’s much more lethargic transition.
Cash flow issues, for British brands, if you’re making all your money in May - September, it’s putting a huge strain on your cash position. You’re having to constantly raise for growth. Check out the pod I did with Harry Clarke on this.
When the industry-head winds are whipping.
Founders must remain steadfast. Stoic. Pause. Examine the terrain.
How to examine the terrain?
Do the brilliant basics.
Before following trends, literally just ssk your consumers.
Do you ACTUALLY want this thing?
Does what were creating ACTUALLY resonate with your heart?
Will you buy this once or come back weekly and buy this?
Test national demand quickly and cheaply.
Do food markets in Bristol, Manchester, London, and Glasgow to see if this has got legs on a national level.
Just because a retailer wants it, doesn’t mean consumers want it.
Consumer-heart innovation > Industry-head
Always.
Finally some strategies for Hard Seltzer brands in the UK - here’s some things I’d do
Follow the sun - Export to other countries where it’s hot, more often
Britain is a brand in of itself. Leverage Britain as a brand and export to Barbados, Costa Rica, Portugal.
Do the Festivals circuit around the globe in the months where you can’t sell seltzer in the UK.
Thanks so much for reading as always.
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Thanks so much
Popey xx
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