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Swedish Girls, Speedboats and French Hospitals
Dan Pope
August 29, 2025
I was bobbing in the water. The Blonde Swedish girls were crying. The French Boat driver brimming with guilt. The ambulance arrived. 4 troopers ran up the beach. I bobbed and bobbed and bobbed.
A crushing crush turned nightmarishly garish.
45 minutes earlier.
T’was all C’est Fucking Bonne Bonne chief.
The French Riviera. Beautiful mistress. Her luscious long navy locks marbled with the most perfect glistening sparkles. The hills magnetically peaceful. Insanely tranquil. Orange and rusty rocks sprouting the most gloriously deep green trees.
I was at Beach Club drinking Rosé. Under white umbrellas, and army of French holiday-goers reclined on orange and navy thick tasseled sun loungers. They smoked and yawned and stretched like peanut-butter bronzed Jaguars. An unfathomably delicious bronze complexion. A fizz of red and yellow and blue and orange and pink swimming trunks and bikinis… JOLTED like E_LECTRICTY
The smell of Marlborough Gold smoke marbled with the soothing tickle of Piz Bun sun cream and salty sea breeze heaving in from the Meddeterian Sea, folded with the whiff of fresh Sea bass smothered in pungent garlic and parsley and lightning lemon and copious cholesterol-clogging butter.
I sipped a glass of Rosé (my 5th). Checking out of reality. Checking into holiday. Starving out stress. Feasting on Bliss. Looking out at the sea.
Dotted on the oceanic canvas:: splatterings of toothpaste-white yachts with black menacing windows like black oil in molten Texan sunshine. Reflecting the ostentatious, opaque souls of their rich oil mongering owners.
Ambient house music rolled and breezed out the speakers. I rolled my feet through the hot sand and breezed back another glass of Rosé.
Holiday-feeling of utter relaxation is seeping into my bones.
One of the Swedish girls chants.
“Do vyou vwant vwater to vee Spvorts?”
“Cvaamaan vletss do v-a v-water sports”
In my mind:
“absolutely no fucking part of me wants to do fucking water sports”
Sputtering out my coquettish-fooled-chops:
“yes, ABSOLUTELY girls, I absolutely love water sports… how much is it?”
Before I can even quaff my 6th glass of Rosé.
I am sallied and suited and booted in a life jacket.
We laugh and scream as the red and white speed boat screams and laughs through the milky blue water. A stench of petrol and fear zonked out the back of the boat.
We go off the first wave.
POCK-SPOCK - BAM - SPACK my shoulder is banged out of place.
Bobbing in the water. Like a drunkard buoy, not feeling buoyant. I muster a smidge of ancient decorum, but the fresh wet sting of pain burns.
A spaghetti of anguish splutters out my gob.
“MATE…my fucking shoulder is FUCKED”
“Get me back to the shore now… this ain’t good…this isn’t good at all”
The olive bronzed French Boat driver looks through his Ray Ban sunglasses, fizzing white teeth.
“No parlez Anglais”
“You wot geeze…. “”
“No Parlez Anglais?”
A tumultuous tennis match of convoluted conversation fumbled forwards
“No Parlez Anglais?”
“No Parlez Francais?”
“No Parlez Anglais?”
“No Parlez Francais?”
Everything is then a b-l——u——r -rrrrrr-RRRRRRRRRE
The Red Ambulance rocks up on the beach. My shoulder is hanging out it’s socket like a string of boney sausages.
“No Parlez Anglais?”
“No Parlez Francais?”
Hurtling like a Looney Tune Whacky Racer. Clawing and curving and slicing and screeching and screaming through the French Hillside to Cannes Hospital.
Cannes You Fix It, Yes He Cannes.
After a right fucking palaver of No-Parlez-Anglais.
The French Doctor Do Very Little’s, left me waiting on the carousel of No-Parlez-Anglais.
Eventually, Thankfully, Finally,
The Doctor Do Very Little’s thumbed it in and popped my shoulder into place.
Trundling out the X Ray Room to the Waiting Room met by a sea of suntanned-stupefied looks.
I completely forgot. I was still topless. And left me bleedin’ Nike Sliders at the Beach Club.
“Would you like some shoes?!”
“Yes, please”
This is what they gave me…
Off I went into the French Riviera…
I completely misunderstood the probability of dislocating my shoulder on the French Riviera.
A Black Swan Event a la Nassim Taleb.
What is a Black Swan event?
A Black Swan event is a highly unpredictable and rare occurrence with a severe impact, often leading to significant and unforeseen consequences.
Alas, let’s discuss Nassim Taleb’s Fooled By Randomness.
Taleb says humans rarely understand probabilistic thinking.
“Outside of textbooks and casinos, probability almost never presents itself as a mathematical problem”
“Humans can’t think in complicated shades and numbers - consumers think a 75% fat free burger is different from a 25% fat burger”
“Mathematics is a way of thinking, and meditating, little more, in our world of randomness”.
“Mathematics is not just a “numbers game” it is a way of thinking. We will see that probability is a qualitative subject”
I LOVE this.
I love the idea of maths as a way to view the world differently. Think differently. Solve problems differently. We can use maths as a metaphor to view the world differently.
Taleb’s Theory: 10 x 1 is not the same as 1 x 10.
Listen, bro, I know you’re thinking..
“what the fuck mate?”
”No Parlez Mathematics, chief, aren’t ya?”
The equation 10 x 1 = 1 x 10 = 10 is always true arithmetically.
In pure mathematics, 10 x 1 = 1 x 10.
BUT…in REAL LIFE… they often represent very different scenarios, particularly in business and marketing.
Let’s go through some examples.
The Pub
Having 1 x 10 pints at the pub is not the same as 10 x 1 pints at the pub.
I.e. going to the pub and having one pint for 10 days straight is NOT the same as going to the pub on one Friday and chinning 10 pints in one sitting.
E-Commerce and Selling Shit Online
Selling one item to ten people (1 x 10) is often easier and more effective than selling ten items to one person (10 x 1), especially in online retail.
Car Crashes
Imagine, being hit by a car 100 times at 1mph. You’re fine.
Imagine being hit by a car 1 times at 100mph. You’re totally fucked. Game over, Senor.
Conversations in a Pub
1 x 3 is not the same a 3 x 1.
If you’re in a pub, in a group of four having a chat.
It’s better to have 1 x person speaking to 3 x people vs. 3 x people speaking to 1 x person.
Restaurant Reviews
10 x 1 unhappy customers Google reviews, is not the same as 1 x Jay Rayner Guardian review that decimates your business (1 x 10 scenario).
Getting pissed and going on the ringos with Swedish Girls
10 x 1 I go on the water sports and have a lovely, lovely time.
1 x 10 situation, totally out the Blue, I hit the wave and dislocate my shoulder like a proper Inbetweener.
Building an amazing rate of sale in Tesco, Sainsbury’s or Waitrose
When you’re trying to build an amazing rate of sale, buyers measure brands on the average rate of sale.
10 x 1 and 1 x 10 are not the same.
It’s easier to sell 10 units x 1 die-hard consumer vs. 1 units x 10 new-ish consumers.
It’s much easier to sell 10 units to 1 x consumer in your top performing stores vs. selling 1 item to 10 customers in your least performing stores.
Alas… look at your distribution and relentlessly apply the Pareto Principle (80/20).
RELENTLESSLY FOCUS on your top performing stores.
Emails: Busy Shallow vs. Impactful Deep
10 x 1 is not the same as 1 x 10 applies to emails.
Writing 10 x 1 emails is not the same as writing 1 email (with 10 x impact)
Remember this is a metaphor and way to meditate not literal arithmetic.
So many of us, believe we’re working “hard” by writing to 10 x 1 = Emails
Most of it is unimportant and distraction.
You’re far better spending 10 x the time, writing one email or LinkedIn post that will actually move the needle.
Shallow/Busy (10 x 1) is a DANGEROUS to play.
Deep/Impact (1 x 10) is a WONDERFUL to play.
The lessons
Don’t blindly follow data in decision making. We need to understand the behaviour underneath the numbers.
10 x 1 is not the same as 1 x 10 is a great way of viewing the world differently, seeing things others don’t. There isn’t necessarily an “obvious” answer to Taleb’s work, more a new lens to solve problems.
We’re told to seek objective answers. Sometimes having better questions or unique ways of viewing the world is better for creativity. 10 × 1 is not the same as 1 × 10 is absolutely that.
Don’t be tempted on water sports with Swedish girls.
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