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The Alcohol Free movement will die like the Vegan movement

Author

Dan Pope
December 12, 2025

The Alcohol Free movement will die like the Vegan movement 

Said the massive pub operator I had lunch with recently

Hhmmm? I thought 

Really??!!! I pondered 

Surely not? I questioned

Then…

They showed me the weekly sales data of Alcohol Free pints vs. normal pints 

It’s fucking MENTAL mate!!! 

Alcohol Free is Less than 0.5% of total sales

Is Alcohol Free all fart, no shit?

I don’t know the answer?

I very much could be wrong 

but, some thoughts we discussed below 

  1. Consumption opportunity/occasion is WAY smaller than we think.

    Very hard to actually nail 7 Alcohol Free pints. Very easy to nail 7 pints of normal booze. Especially as you get more drunk. The rate of sale and consumption opportunity is in a straight jacket.

  2. Zebra Stripe Boozing = smaller consumption/occasion opportunity

    If you’re driving or keeping it PG13. You’d rather have 2 drinks of ACTUAL alcohol punctuated with 2 Alcohol free bevvies. Again this reduces the size of the consumption oppo

  3. Is Alcohol Free is a very London centric movement?

    Again, I don’t know the answer to this. I don’t have access to the data. It was purely a discussion point.

    But, one thing I know to be true, London is not the rest of the UK.

    So many brands get stuck believing London = the rest of the UK. It’s not.

  4. Signal vs. Noise theory from Nate Silver's book The Signal and the Noise

    A fabulous framework for distinguishing relevant information (the signal) from irrelevant, distracting data (the noise) to improve decision-making + understanding, especially in fucking complex information environments. 

    It's about focusing effort and attention on what truly matters, like a radio tuning in a specific station amidst static, using principles from statistics and practical strategies to filter out distractions and identify true patterns or insights, as popularised by Nate Silver's book The Signal and the Noise.

    Applying this to the Alchohol Free Movement

    The noise

    • social media influencers with huge followings not drinking

    • High Status celebrities giving up the bottle

    • “Gen Z aren’t drinking” Narrative that everyone believes without ever truly questioning

    • big campaigns from brands like Guinness 0% sponsoring The Rugby 6 Nations

    • More and more AF brands entering the market

“The noise” muddy’s our perception, it blinds us from seeing the actual “signal”.

The signal

  • What’s the actual rate of sale in pubs and bars?

  • What’s the actual rate of sale in grocery multiples?

  • Go and actually sit in pubs and watch what’s going on, on the ground - to me it seems people are drinking way more actual booze than not?

IMO the hype will dissipate, but the trend will remain.

The sub-category is still massive and a treasure chest for founders with Golden Dreams of a MAHOOSIVE exit.

There will be more losers than winners 

The Winners: 

Lucky Saint is one of the greatest brands of all time - with other AF brands dying - Lucky Saint will clear up in the On Trade & Off Trade  

Wednesday Domaine - will absolutely dominate the AF wine, their product is the best in best in class.

BOTIVO - Imme is one of the smartest brand strategist’s and marketeers I know. BOTIVO see the prudent path to the future. BOTIVO actively don’t position themselves in the Low & No category to avoid being pigeon holed. BOTIVO actively create both AF and Alcohol Serves in bars and on socials. This gives the brand room and space and headroom and elasticity across both AF and Alcohol consumption/occasions.

Have a top weekend chiefs

Popey xx

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