Why craft beer is DYING a fast death in 2025?

No matter what religion you worship. Christian or Jewish or Hindu or Muslim or Sikh or Buddhist or Supreme or Crossfit. There is one thing we all worship.

The Sun.

When The Sun peeps and peers and pokes through the dreary-fucking-miffed fog of winter. We gushingly rush to parks plastered in giddy pandemonium.

In Hyde Park or Heaton Park or Victoria Park.

Pasty milk-bottle white sun-worshipers bask in the zenith of light. Milky Bar kids aiming for Tarzan tans. Sadly for many (including Moi) the result is more akin to split-ya-banjo-blistered-red.

It was a Friday afternoon around 1.42pm. I walked along South Bank. Soon: entering The Temple. I was nervous. Cold sweat trickled down my hot neck.

A screaming orchestra of BUG-EYED, fart-huffin’n’ stinkin’ vultures and bats and butterflies hurtled around my tummy.

“Am I about to cack my pants?”

“Keep it cool, Dan”

“Just look straight ahead, you’ll be in there soon”

“Lean into fear”

“Keep going….

“you’ve got this hun, YAAASSSSSSS”

The Sun smothered London in her radiant glittering shampoo. The London Eye. Big Ben. Houses of Parliament. Tate Modern. Waterloo Station. The Thames. The Shard. Fizzed a dizzying electric brightness.

By The River Bank, on the Grassy Banks… were ranks of people lay like ZONKED OUT - BUGGED OUT - TAPPED OUT

Kids quaffed 99p Flakes under the stiflingly blue sky. The cool zephyr rolled in from the Thames.

A raucous chorus of Kids on Easter Holiday’s hurtled around. Mums & Dads conversed to other Dads & Mums. Extolling the virtues of our (“blooodddyyy finally”) sun-snogged Little Miserable Git Island.

“Imagine…. if ONLY the weather was like this ALL THE TIME ?”.

“London is LITERALLY the best in this weathe”

Other than The Sun. There’s another religion. A religion piously and zealously and fervently worshipped.

Craft Beer.

My Broski, Mo-ski from Tiny Rebel hooked me up with a ticket to a craft beer festival. A Beer Festival Between Two Bridges.

Dangerous starting a 1.30ish pm.

A Half-Pint nailing Full-Pints, Half-Cut to Full-Fucked. Between Two Bridges, Between Two Hedges (with my cacks off) rapido-rapido rapidoooo

Craft beer festivals are wonderful microcosms of human nature and brand buildings role.

Our desire for

1. Status

2. Affiliation (connection)

3. Freedom of Fear (not being the odd one out)

It’s stunning observing Status Games and the role of brands + marketing at these events.

The High Status folk were the craft beer aficionados aka BBQ Enthusiast aka “Pit Masters".

Pit Master Pete
Pit Master Dave

Ironic, as they, seemingly, hadn’t mastered washing their pits. A Bacchanalia of Body Odour blossomed as I walked around. Resplendent in Repugnance.

I scuttled past a myriad of Handy Andy’s. DIY Enthusiasts. Know how to fit a shelf-ers. Don’t read instruction-ers. Roll their sleeves up-ers. Handy Andy’s smashing the Shandy’s.

Music roared and poured out the speakers. Craft Beer is ACID TRIP BLAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH - j=u=m=p=ing colours

I LOVE CRAFT BEER.

EVERYTHING I love about challenger brands. A category that is always evolving. An insane array of arresting straight-in-my-basket beer brands.

But… going to this event rallied home ONE CRUCIAL BRAND BUILDING LESSON.

Nassim Taleb’s Barbell Strategy is of the BIGGEST ideas I’ve EVER learnt.

I’ve talked about this at length (and girth) on podcasts with Giles Brook, James Watt

Nassim Taleb (nabbed this off a AI google search): 

Taleb's barbell strategy gives you Antifragility. It maximizes your upside while protecting you from the ultimate downside (bankruptcy, death, etc.). It puts you into a position to gain from randomness, volatility, and uncertainty instead of being destroyed by it.

Barbell Strategy = Anti-Fragile.

As a Founder your goal is to operate in the middle of these two completely opposite and contradictory tensions. Find the “Golden Mean” a la Aristotle.

Other barbell strategies for food & drink founders.

Self Doubt <> Self Belief Barbell:

you need tonnes of self-belief to get your idea of the ground, push through obstacles and failures. But temper with self-doubt to keep improving your product and avoid hubris.

too much of either is utterly fragile.

Golden mean, Baby, Golden mean.

Speed <> Direction Barbell:

moving fast is pointless if you’re moving in the wrong direction. But moving in the right direction slowly isn’t great either.

Operate in the middle.

James Watt implements the Speed <> Direction barbell by using the customer as the compass to course correct. Check out poddy with him here.

Focus on Core <> Innovate New Barbell:

innovating and creating loads of new skus is dumb if it detracts from your core range.

Remember 80% of revenue will come from 20% of skus. 

Conversely, never innovating means you miss unseen and high upside opportunities and also come stale to trade and consumers.

The Craft Beer festival unearthed a new barbell…

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1000 True Fans <> 100,000,000 Fans Barbell

What is 1000 True Fans?

1000 True fans is a seminal essay by Kevin Kelly.

AI’s short definition: "1,000 True Fans" theory, by Kevin Kelly, argues that creators (or brands) can achieve sustainable income by focusing on cultivating a dedicated base of 1,000 loyal customers, rather than striving for mass appeal.

As I walked around The Craft Beer Festival I kept asking myself

• How many of these brands will actually get a HUGE exit?

• How many of these founders actually WANT a HUGE exit?

• How many of these craft beer brands would be better building a life-style business?

1000 True Fans <> 100,000,000 Fans Barbell

1000 True Fans Don’t EVER forget you first 1000 true fans.

Craft beer brands must always look after those first 1000 true fans .

I went for dinner with a successful founder who told me said the BIGGEST mistake he sees brands make is neglecting the True Fans in pursuit of a bigger audiences.

REMEMBER: 80% of your revenue comes from 20% customers.

As you scale, never, ever, ever, ever forget ways to surprise and delight your core audience.

BUT>>>>>>> here’s the TENSION.

You can’t become a household brand if you only focus on your True Fans

Sadly, Shropshire Hairy John Dory Cum Juice18% Sours just doesn’t have the legs to move from 1000 true fans to 100,000, 000 fans.

Gandalf’s WHAM-BAM Wizzard Piss 17% Sours just doesn’t have the legs to move from 1000 true fans to 100,000, 000 fans.

Founders, **ONLY if you want a big exit, MUST ask yourself this hard question?

how does a brand ACTUALLY move 1000 true fans move to 100,000,000 fans?

Has this got the legs to move from 1000 true fans <> 100,000,000 fans.

How does this move from Niche move to Mainstream?

How do we increase and go after the total addressable market?

1000 True Fans <> 100,000,000 Fans Barbell

Constantly find ways to keep your first 1000 true fans happy but always think about how we increase our Total Addressable Market?

Lucky Saint are Masters at the 1000 True Fans <> 100,000,000 Fans Barbell

two ways they operate in this barbell:

Focus on Core <> Innovate New:

Lucky Saint relentlessly focus on the core SKU draft in the on-trade.

Yet, Lucky Saint innovate in grocery, with their shandy SKU to unlock more distribution.

Unlock a bigger audience. Innovate in grocery to unlock more listings like their shandy.

1000 true fans <> 100,000,000 Fans Barbell

Run clubs.

100,000,000 Fans Barbell

big fuck off ATL activations.

The 1000 True Fans <> 100,000,000 Fans Barbell

forget about 1000 true fans. You’re fucked.

don’t think about the 100,000,000. You’re fucked.

Operate in the middle of the tension = find the golden mean = anti-fragile.